Across the Bay

Sunday, June 07, 2009

Major Victory for March 14

March 14 is headed for an impressive victory in the elections. Michel Aoun's Wunderkind son-in-law in Batroun has lost, and there's a slight possibility that Aoun himself will not be reelected in Keserwen, though that remains to be seen.

Results so far (some final, some preliminary) have March 14 winning big in basically all the battle districts: all seven seats in Zahle, all three in Koura, both seats in Batroun, all five in Beirut 1, and it's looking very good in Metn, with only Baabda not looking good.

The big news so far is a very strong showing for the independent-M14 alliance in Keserwen, where Aoun has his seat, but the final results have yet to come out.

So much for Bashar's "imaginary majority" and "transient condition" (as he famously referred to M14), in spite of all his terrorism, bombing, murder, violence, intimidation, coup attempts and information warfare over the last four years. And cheers to Andrew Lee Butters, Mitchell Prothero, Hugh Mcleod, Robert Worth, et al. Good call there, gentlemen.

Hezbollah, showing its high democratic spirit, has spent the day assaulting rival Shiite candidates and clashing with the majority's supporters in some districts.

And now, as I noted in my pre-election briefing, for the real, post-election battle. Jumblat gives us a preview: He rejected the idea of having an obstructing third, calling it a “fallacy.”

UPDATE: Al-Arabiya is quoting sources "close to Hezbollah" as conceding that M14 has won circa 70 seats. In other words, they have kept the numbers they won in 2005, despite everything.

UPDATE 2: Alas, Keserwen was swept by the Aounists, despite a really strong showing for the independent-M14 list. Mansour al-Bone and his list put up a strong fight in Keserwen, losing by less than two thousand votes out of 30 thousand. Gone are the days of Aoun's "tsunami."